Will the US dollar collapse? People ask this every day, and most answers are either too optimistic or too pessimistic. So I built my own indicator: the PEES Index, which quantifies “de-dollarization” pressure into a single number from 0 to 100. Higher means more pressure.
What is PEES?
PEES stands for Petrodollar Erosion & End-of-dollar Score. Sounds dramatic, but it’s really just a tool that tracks whether the dollar’s dominance is starting to crack.
Why “PEES”? Because Poorman Indices has a tradition of naming things with puns. TACO, POGO, and now PEES — yes, we’re watching if the dollar is about to “leak.”
Four Components
PEES is built from four signals, each tracking a different angle of de-dollarization:
P — Petrodollar Pressure (30%)
Tracks the WTI crude oil / DXY dollar index ratio. When oil rises and the dollar falls, the petrodollar system may be loosening.
E1 — Exit from Treasuries (25%)
Watches 10-year Treasury yield trends. When foreign central banks dump US bonds, yields go up. The first thing you do when you lose faith in a currency is sell its debt.
E2 — Escape Assets: Gold (30%)
Gold is the oldest “anti-dollar” asset. Surging gold prices usually mean the market is losing confidence in fiat. Highest weight because gold is the most direct thermometer of de-dollarization.
S — Satoshi Signal: BTC (15%)
Bitcoin as digital gold is part of the de-dollarization narrative. But it’s too volatile for heavy weighting — it’s more of a sentiment amplifier.
How to Read It
- 0-30: Dollar is rock solid
- 30-50: Some noise, nothing unusual
- 50-70: Pressure building, worth watching
- 70-100: Spraying — markets are seriously questioning dollar dominance
Why Did I Build This?
One day I stumbled upon someone talking about a “dollar collapse index” and thought — hey, that actually makes sense. I should build my own version. In the age of AI, spinning up an index doesn’t take long.
I don’t want to see the dollar collapse. But most of our money is tied to it — whether you hold USD, invest in US stocks, or just earn a salary in TWD, the exchange rate is deeply linked. If the dollar has a real problem, your assets shrink with it. Having one more lens to watch through is better than watching nothing.
And as the disclaimer on the site says: this index is for entertainment and reference only. It is NOT investment advice. Don’t take it too seriously.
